A year before the 2024 elections, attention is on multiple House races in Southern California that will help determine which political party will control the next Congress.
Two Orange County districts, in particular, may play an outsized role in determining who runs the House after 2024: Rep. Katie Porter’s open seat in the 47th congressional district and Rep. Michelle Steel’s seat in the 45th.
Porter’s seat is rated “lean Democrat” by The Cook Political Report, which analyzes elections, while Steel’s seat is considered to “lean Republican” in its latest analysis with just a year to go before the general election.
Steel, a Republican, may hang onto her seat this go-round, said Matt Lesenyie, a political science professor at Cal State Long Beach, but this race could set up a “real nail-biter” of a contest in 2026.
“She’s got experience, she’s going to have a ton of money from the national party coming in,” said Lesenyie. “But whoever emerges from the primary is going to get all the brand credibility and start the next time with those campaign notes and some name familiarity.”
So far, Steel is up against Garden Grove Councilmember Kim Bernice Nguyen, attorney Derek Tran, Brea resident Aditya Pai and UC Irvine Law grad Cheyenne Hunt.
And for Porter’s race, her absence on the ballot as a congressional candidate — she is vying for the U.S. Senate seat — tips the scales in favor of Republican Scott Baugh, Lesenyie predicted.
“Porter’s held that seat because she has cultivated a personal brand: ‘I’m a Democrat, but I’m different.’ It’s pretty hard to lump her in with ‘the Squad’ or with a backbencher,” he said. “Democrats need somebody that everybody knows and that can win a fairly conservative electorate in that district.”
While that coastal district, which includes Irvine and part of Huntington Beach, has slightly more registered Democrats than Republicans — 35.6% to 33.93% — it has a…
Read the full article here
