Seven-and-a-half months into its existential crisis, the Pac-12 doesn’t have a media rights contract, hasn’t decided whether to expand and is offering public pronouncements of unity from the university presidents — all while rumors of its pending demise are rampant.
The middle of February feels an awful lot like the beginning of July.
And in many respects, nothing has changed for the conference since those roiling weeks that followed the announced departures of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten.
Then as now, ESPN and Amazon are likely distribution partners.
Then as now, expansion (by two) is a distinct possibility.
Then as now, the most likely outcome to this saga is the continued existence of the Pac-12 with a media rights deal that extends through the end of the decade.
There are no guarantees until the 10 university presidents sign the grant-of-rights agreement that binds their media rights revenue to the conference.
But despite all the events of the past seven months that seemingly have nudged the Pac-12’s Doomsday Clock toward midnight, the myriad forces at work in realignment (both internal and external) still point toward the schools moving forward together.
Following the spate of media reports last week suggesting commissioner George Kliavkoff misread the market and is struggling to generate competitive bids, the Hotline was asked if our Pac-12 survival odds have been adjusted downward.
For several months, we have listed survival as a 5.5-point favorite over extinction — less than a touchdown.
That’s up from 4.5 points last summer, immediately after the thunderbolt from L.A. But at no time in the past seven months has the number exceeded 5.5 points, which carries an implied probability of approximately 65 percent.
And we aren’t lowering it now.
Why? Because the threats and obstacles to Pac-12 survival currently in the news have been baked into the line.
Consider:
- Even though the expanded College Football Playoff adds legitimacy to the regular…
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