This weekend’s big race for 3-year-old horses at Santa Anita could help answer the key question about California-based contenders for the Kentucky Derby.
In a normal season, that question would be which horse will carry western hopes to Churchill Downs in the spring. In 2024, it’s whether any horse from here will have a chance of winning there.
The cause is a combination of factors: Churchill Downs’ extraordinary decision to extend Bob Baffert’s ban into a third season since Medina Spirit’s disqualification from victory in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. And horse owners’ decision to stand by Baffert and not transfer their Triple Crown prospects to other trainers to keep them Derby-eligible this year, the way many did in ’22 and ’23.
Baffert, the six-time Derby winner, has the most and the best 3-year-olds in California and maybe the whole nation. They’re running in the series of Derby prep races even though they’re auditioning for the May 18 Preakness, not the May 4 Derby. Their giant presence makes it harder for eligible horses to win races and earn serious Derby qualifying points.
Santa Anita will run the $300,000 Grade II San Felipe Stakes on Sunday after the card, headed by the $500,000 Grade I Santa Anita Handicap, was postponed from Saturday because of weather handicappers’ forecast for heavy rain.
The field set Thursday for the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe consists of three Baffert-trained horses – top-ranked U.S. 3-year-old Nysos, Robert Lewis Stakes runner-up Wine Me Up and first-time stakes runner Imagination – and two others in John Sadler-trained Scatify and John Shirreffs-trained Mc Vay.
If either Scatify or Mc Vay can win the Felipe – improving on those colts’ third- and fourth-place finishes behind Nysos and Wine Me Up in the Lewis Stakes a month ago – he’ll earn 50 points and be a virtual lock to qualify for the 20-horse Derby field, which usually requires a point total in the 40s.
Second through fifth places in the…
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