By Alicia Diaz, Bloomberg News
A wavering group of Latino voters is up for grabs as the 2024 election nears, signaling a warning flare for the Democratic Party.
Latinos, especially first-time voters, have been loosening their traditional ties to Democrats, even though polls suggest that doesn’t automatically translate into Republican gains. As a tight presidential race in 2024 and another close battle for control of Congress look likely, Latino voters — one of the fastest-growing blocs at over 34 million — are increasingly viewed as a potentially decisive group.
“The Latino vote is probably the most persuadable universe of voters in the 2024 election,” said Chuck Rocha, senior Democratic strategist and president of political consulting firm Solidarity Strategies.
Polls suggest many undecided Latino voters view both parties as falling flat in delivering on key values such as the economy and crime. And their often relatively short lineage in the US means political allegiances are more fluid, Rocha said.
“The parties have been very transactional,” said Hector Sanchez Barba, CEO of civic engagement group Mi Familia Vota. “They just come the year of the election, especially in the swing states. We know that this requires long term investment, so it’s an opportunity for both parties.”
Those battleground states include Arizona and Nevada, both of which have significant Latino populations.
About a third of Latinos identify as Democrats compared to less than 20% as Republicans, according to an Ipsos poll. Even those Republican ties are somewhat shaky, according to Pew Research.
But Pew also found that Latino support for Democratic candidates dropped to a 21 percentage-point margin in the 2022 US midterms from a 47-point margin in 2018, mostly due to changes in turnout among Latino Republicans.
“The ties of the Latino community to the Democratic Party are relatively weak compared to what you see with the Black community or urban, highly…
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