Most Democratic incumbents and challengers in battleground Senate races raised more than opponents during the last three months of 2023 and had bigger bankrolls at the start of the year, new filings with the Federal Election Commission show.
Some races are still taking shape, however. In Wisconsin, Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin is effectively unchallenged, but that could change soon.
Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey was outraised by his likely Republican opponent but had more money on hand on Dec. 31. But like other endangered Democrats, Casey’s opponent has already put $1 million of his own money into the race and is expected to spend more. Outside committees also can be expected to layer more millions on top of what candidates spend, though they also pay much higher rates for TV advertising so the money doesn’t go as far.
The battlefield for Democrats to defend their slim 51-49 governing majority still tilts upward, especially after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin III decided not to defend his seat, shifting the rating for that race to Solid Republican by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.
Below is a rundown of key races, ranked by their Inside Elections rating, and what the latest reports covering the final three months of 2023 show.
Toss-up races
Arizona: Independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema maintains the largest war chest, with about $10.6 million on hand at the end of the quarter, but her meager fundraising of $595,000 is raising questions about whether she intends to run for reelection. Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego raised more than $3.3 million in the quarter and has about $6.5 million on hand. Kari Lake, the most likely Republican candidate, brought in $2.1 million but has only about half that in the bank. Fellow Republican Mark Lamb, the Pinal County sheriff, raised about $265,000.
Montana: Democrat Jon Tester continues to outpace his…
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