After adding residents for nearly its entire history, California can expect its population to remain roughly the same through 2060, new projections show, in a trend that would upend previous predictions and threaten the Golden State’s status as an economic powerhouse.
The forecast from the state’s finance department comes on the heels of three years of unprecedented population declines totaling about 1%, as residents fed up with high housing costs and other quality-of-life concerns fled California in droves.
A decade ago, the finance department had projected the state population would maintain its upward trajectory, reaching about 53 million people by 2060. But after accounting for factors including declining births, aging residents, and more people moving away in the years leading up to and during the pandemic, officials now project the population will hold steady at around 39.5 million.
“Adding those numbers has shown a reality that’s different than what we expected,” said Andres Gallardo, a demographer with the state.
Although some of the pandemic-era demographic shifts appear to be stabilizing, the “compounding effects” of the changes could have a profound long-term impact, Gallardo said. For instance, birth rates — which had already been dropping for years — fell drastically during the pandemic, meaning that 20 years from now, fewer residents will be at the age to start having children.
A stagnant population could mean a shrinking labor force as the state fails to replace retiring Baby Boomers, potentially resulting in a flagging economy mirroring the decades-long malaise from which some Rust Belt states are still struggling to emerge.
“You can draw a pretty straight line between places that grow in population and their economic potential,” said Jeff Bellisario, executive director of the Bay Area Council Economic Institute.
Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto, said…
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