Thanks to Iowa Republicans, the first 2024 election is in the books, and we have the first opportunity of the year to chew over some results.
The bottom line is that Donald Trump did what he needed to do. The former president came into Monday as the clear front-runner for the GOP nomination and emerged with a majority of the vote and a dominant, 30-point victory over the rest of the field. Amidst all the chatter about who is in a distant second place, Trump continues on the clearest path to victory after the rest of the states finish their primaries.
Despite seven years of hand-wringing about polling, it was a pretty good night for surveys. The final FiveThirtyEight average before the Iowa caucus had Trump at 52.7 percent followed by former Gov. Nikki Haley (18.7 percent), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (15.8 percent), and Vivek Ramaswamy (6.4 percent). The final results look like Trump (51 percent), DeSantis (21 percent), Haley (19 percent), and Ramaswamy (8 percent).
People seeking perfection from polling will quibble with the DeSantis polling versus his final result, but overall, Iowa should be considered a victory for the polling industry, especially in the context of a low-turnout caucus in extreme weather.
Even though there’s a negligible difference in vote totals between DeSantis and Haley for second and third place, the precise order could have an impact on the race. If a distant second place (rather than third place) convinces DeSantis to stay in the race, it mutes the narrative about Haley’s momentum going into New Hampshire, and ties up potential voters.
DeSantis peaked?
That being said, the argument that everyone supporting a non-Trump candidate would line up behind a different non-Trump candidate if their first pick quit the race was always a bit simplistic. When DeSantis drops out, Trump will undoubtedly get some of his supporters. And even though Ramaswamy was only getting a few percentage points, more…
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