Nathan L. Gonzales | (TNS) CQ-Roll Call
WASHINGTON — The House battleground continues to take shape two months before Election Day. While a handful of the top Senate races have been engaged for months with torrents of television ads, most House races are just now doing the same. And with the uncertainty at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket, the down-ballot fight was in a holding pattern for much of the summer.
Until his departure from the race on July 21, President Joe Biden was headed for defeat by former President Donald Trump and threatened to torpedo Democratic chances of winning the House and holding the Senate. Now, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, the party’s congressional candidates have a better, albeit still slim, chance of holding the Senate and are firmly in the fight for the House majority.
The path to a majority has been slightly easier for Republicans throughout the cycle. While Democrats have needed to win nine of the 10 races rated as Toss-ups by Inside Elections to get to 218 (as long as they win all of the races rated as Solid, Likely, Lean and Tilt Democratic), Republicans needed to win just two rated as Toss-up.
The silver lining for Democrats has been that Biden finished ahead of Trump in nine of the 10 Toss-ups in 2020 in an era with minimal ticket-splitting. But Biden was on track to finish behind Trump in the Toss-up districts, as well as many in the Tilt and Lean categories and probably some in Likely Democratic. That was a death sentence to Democrats’ chances in the House and fueled the pressure for Biden to drop out of the race.
Now, public and private polling shows Harris is matching or exceeding Biden’s 2020 performance, pulling close in the presidential race and improving Democrats’ chances of gaining the four seats they need.
The seven recent rating changes are split nearly evenly between the two parties.
Democrats’ chances improved in four races:…
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