Main Street shoppers and merchants could use a little cheer to lift their election hangover.
With Black Friday sales pitches churning well ahead of Thanksgiving, mom-and-pop businesses across Southern California are feeling a bit disconnected from the mostly rosy shopping forecasts touted by retail industry groups.
The National Retail Federation sees holiday spending rising 2.5-3.5% this holiday season, peaking as high as $989 billion, or $902 per person.
Another industry group, the National Federation of Independent Businesses, sees a mix of optimism and caution. Its “uncertainty index” about future conditions hit a record high in October, as sales growth slowed and cost pressures squeezed merchants’ bottom line.
Local business owners interviewed in recent days say they’ve seen that slowdown in foot traffic and spending at their stores. Some speculate it could be related to fever-pitched election campaigns. They wonder if consumers are sitting on the sidelines, holding onto their cash, waiting to see which way the wind blows.
At least one economist in Southern California called those sentiments “bull pucky.”
“My presumption is that there will be a perfectly fine Christmas,” said Christopher Thornberg, an expert in revenue forecasting at Beacon Economics in Los Angeles.
“What you’re really experiencing is nothing more than people asking, ‘Well, why isn’t it like it was two years ago?’ It’s not two years ago,” he said. “Things are settling down, and we’re getting back to something resembling normality,”
Still, some hand-holding may be needed.
Brent Baden, owner of Giltcomplex Antiques along Atlantic Avenue in Long Beach’s Bixby Knolls neighborhood, usually sees a bump in sales after Thanksgiving and again in the week before Christmas, but he isn’t so sure this year.
The 64-year-old Baden said local tax measures approved by voters on Nov. 5 will make his business conditions even tighter. If sales don’t thrive, he may be forced to…
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