Cargo numbers continued to push higher at the Port of Los Angeles in February — but it came with some caution that the pace could slow by midyear.
“At some point, we will see a softening of the numbers,” Executive Director Gene Seroka said in his monthly virtual news conference on Wednesday, March 19, adding that it is possible to see a 10% decline in volume in the second half of 2025.
While it is still early in the year, consumer confidence and spending are expected to see a potential downturn, a point made in Seroka’s discussion with this month’s guest, Nela Richardson, chief economist a Automatic Data Processing Research, which analyzes the labor market and employee performance.
“There are a lot of things happening at the same time,” Richardson said, highlighting Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting about interest rates that were kept unchanged. “There are a lot of moving parts here and all of them are going to have specific and collective impacts.”
February cargo numbers — with 801,398 units flowing through the port — was the “second busiest February on record” and 2.5% more than the same month in 2024, Seroka said.
But, he said, shippers and retailers front-loading cargo continued to influence those high numbers as they try to get cargo sent before tariffs set in.
“For 17 of the last 19 months,” Seroka said, “the Port of Los Angeles has experienced year-over-year cargo growth, all without ship delays or back-ups on our docks.”
Retailers and manufacturers “have been importing their products through Los Angeles earlier than usual as a hedge against tariffs,” Seroka said. “Given the substantial inventory already here, and the uncertainty of tariffs, it’s possible we could see a 10% volume decline in the second half of the year.”
There was little else being discussed at the recent TPM Conference for the shipping industry in Long Beach, Seroka said.
“The overall mood of the 4,200 attending” was concentrated on concerns…
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