Projecting California’s 2025 economy is like reviewing a movie sequel with familiar combatants.
The upcoming, second-edition Donald Trump presidency again pits a pro-business force against a pro-consumer state.
Ponder the massive chasms in policies – from immigration to business regulation to green energy. Add in personalities who don’t get along – the Republican president-elect vs. California’s high-profile Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom.
Yet, let me suggest a simple starting point from which to dissect the emerging plot. Remember, this is Round Two.
So, my trusty spreadsheet looked back to 2017, when Trump first entered the White House. The basic math goes like this: Using broad economic yardsticks, how did California’s economy fare when compared with the previous year?
Remember, economies don’t change on a dime just because there’s a new boss at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. So, no matter who becomes president, the previous administration’s economic momentum – good or bad – is a factor in a president’s first year.
And no matter who gets the credit, the trend lines show us that 2016 and 2017 were pretty good years.
Background sounds
To help recall 2017, ponder some cultural trends.
The No. 1 song was “Shape of You” by Ed Sheeran. At the top of the box office was “Star Wars: Episode VIII, The Last Jedi,” and “The Big Bang Theory” was the most-watched TV show.
“Greenery” was the color of the year. Kombucha was the hot new drink, while meatless burgers were a fad.
OK, let’s get to the economics …
Big picture
Statistically speaking, 2017’s White House switch didn’t upset California’s broad business climate.
That year’s business output sped up with a 4.5% increase in statewide gross domestic product compared with a 3.1% growth in 2016.
Confidence improved, too. A 16% jump in consumer optimism, as shown in the Conference Board’s California indexes, was a sharp contrast to a 2% increase in 2016.
Paychecks
The job market was solid in…
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